Friday, 27 November 2015

Greek GDP figures for Q3 2015 - back into negative territory

Final GDP figures for the 3rd quarter came out today and, surprise-surprise, there was a downward revision compared to flash estimates. So, in seasonal-adjusted terms, in Q3 2015 Greek GDP decreased by 1,1% compared to a year earlier.

source: ELSTAT

Let's drill down a bit more and see how individual GDP components fared.

source: ELSTAT, own calculations

As one notices right away when looking at the chart we're back at the stage where imports' decreases are almost the sole positive contributor to GDP. What's more this was the largest fall that Greek imports have recorded since the Great Trade Collapse (the systemic collapse of international trade flows in 2009). We should all thank the imposition of capital controls for that. 

We should also thank our new friend (i.e. capital controls) for the collapse in exports as well since Greek firms had trouble importing inputs. 

Finally, fixed investment came back to being a negative contributor after posting positive contributions in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2014 and the 1st quarter of 2015.

Let's see how big a hole we've dug ourselves into this time...

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