I found the “appetite” to do a post after a
really long time. What puzzled me these past few months was the rise in Greek manufacturing
production the first few months of 2015 (until April at least that is). Of course
this seemingly dry issue has some quite important implications on which I’ll
touch later in the post.
source: Eurostat |
The reason I was puzzled was that SITC
(Standard International Trade Classification) data showed industrial exports to
be falling in volume and domestic demand is rather anemic to justify such
robust increases. Since I use Industrial Production and not Turnover, Volume
data have to be used for comparisons and conclusions reached to be meaningful. SITC data literally refer to volume since they
are expressed in kgs.
I summed up some industrial goods categories
(namely, Chemicals and related products, Manufactured goods classified chiefly
by material, Machinery and transport equipment and Miscellaneous manufactured
articles) to reach the figure shown in the chart below and which I dub “Broadly
Defined Industrial Products”. Not very creative, I know.
source: Eurostat, own calculations |
Last night I had an epiphany and checked data
from one of the other trade classifications, namely BEC (Broad Economic
Categories). Data from BEC justified the robust increases in Industrial
Production since they showed solid increases in merchandise exports volume for
the months until April.
source: Eurostat |
Generally, data from BEC and SITC coincide,
more or less, but (besides early 2015) they have showed divergences in a few
other occasions featured in the graph. I haven’t come up with an explanation
for what drives those divergences, since I am not very fluent in the
classifications’ technicalities but implications of the divergence here could
stretch beyond a technical issue. They could determine whether Euro’s
devaluation in the second half of 2014 actually had a meaningful effect on
Greek merchandise exports. Of course, falling Oil prices may have a further
deflationary effect on prices (besides domestic deflation In Greece) here and
may make apparition of this effect on value terms even harder. Well, we have a
hung jury here, BEC data say it kind of did, while SITC data say it didn’t. Of course, one might be excused to think "if the said effect was indeed meaningful wouldn't it show on both datasets?" and I would be inclined to agree there...
No comments:
Post a Comment