Why it is hypocritical to be worried about Greek exports just now.

I haven’t written about exports for a while, no scrap that, I haven’t written a post altogether in quite a long time. What prompted today’s post is the fact that a lot of people, bodies relevant to exports/entrepreneurship even, have been making quite a lot of noise regarding the plummeting of Greek merchandise exports in the first months of 2014. I find that quite shocking and hypocritical to be honest for a couple of reasons. In order to find what those reasons are I’m afraid that you have to read the remainder of the post though.

Here’s a chart with a breakdown of change in merchandise exports according to their destination.

source: Eurostat, own calculations

Exports to both EU27 countries’ and elsewhere have been declining on a year over year basis and what’s more exports to nonEU27 countries have been posting very hefty declines.

If you want a more smoothed out view of the chart above, here it is.

source: Eurostat, own calculations

In 2011 I had written that the phenomenal spike in Greek exports was mostly due to oil products that were mainly channeled tonon-EU countries. I think that it is interesting and revealing to take a look at how oil-related and non-oil exports have fared these past few years.

source: Eurostat

source: Eurostat, own calculations

  

source: Eurostat, own calculations

As you can see non-oil exports have been stagnating the whole period following the great trade collapse in 2009. What growth there was, was indeed in the oil products segment.

This is why I am shocked that relevant bodies are making noise regarding Greek exports just now. I don’t know about you but the whole scene makes me think of a bunch of people conversing at a post-funeral coffee-offering setting and trying to reach conclusions about what will make the deceased “feel better”. It’s a tad absurd, isn’t it? These noises should have been made 3-4 years back. 

P.S.  If you would like to see how oil-related and non-oil exports have fared for EU27 and non-EU27 countries here are a couple of charts.

source: Eurostat, own calculations

source; Eurostat, own calculations

(The fact that exports to EU27 countries have fared relatively better than those to non-EU27 countries can (at least partly) be blamed to the plummeting of EM currencies during early 2014 which significantly reduced purchasing power among those countries' consumers/firms)