Greece and foreign direct investment: not that fond of each other...?

There is a lot of talk about how Greece needs to attract foreign direct investment. It is one of the few things talked about in (part of) the mainstream media that is probably right. Of course it’s easy to talk the talk but when it comes to walk the walk… 

Greece is the only peripheral country where the stock of foreign direct investment has decreased since the onset of the current depression in 2008.

source: Eurostat, own calculations

What I find equally impressive is the fact that Greece’s FDI stock in 2012, after the massive drop since 2008, almost matches that of Cyprus. A country whose GDP, after the dress down in the Greek figure in the past few years, accounts for less than 1/10 of that of Greece.

source: Eurostat

Despite highlighting some remarkable points the charts above don’t do justice to our beloved country. Take a look at the chart below.

source: Eurostat, own calculations

Yeap, it is true. Greece stands bang at the end of the table when FDI stocks are concerned.

It appears that instead of getting better, situation in Greece is getting worse, as far as FDI is concerned. I won’t go into the merits of FDI, there is plenty of painstakingly detailed literature on the subject out there.

It also appears that the current (a word pertinent to the ever-changing Greek tax laws) framework to attract foreign investors fails miserably to do so. Of course the fact that the FDI stock decreased also means the claim that “foreigners use the crisis as an excuse to grab assets out of local hands” fails the numbers test as well for the time being. And the country of course finds itself stuck in the middle…

Greece's labour market: are we scraping around the bottom here...?

We Greeks are living through a phenomenal depression these past 4 years. What’s more we are being bombarded by the mainstream media with their “perceptions” of the reality that we are living in and their (or those of various “experts” they have as guests) “predictions” of what the future holds for Greece. 

Then there are data but they are rarely featured in the majority of mainstream media (there are some very notable exceptions here), since there are other ingredients that make for much more appealing content.

I would like to share with you a couple (or rather a few) of charts, based on ELSTAT’s seasonally adjusted data regarding Greece’s labour market.

As we widely read or hear in mainstream media, unemployment is still creeping up.

Here is the unemployment rate

source: ELSTAT

and here is the number of unemployed persons.

source: ELSTAT, own calculations

In the charts above one can see that the unemployment rate has more or less stalled and the number of unemployed persons is creeping up, though at a much slower pace than the three previous years.

Now I want us to look at a chart concerning the evolution of employed persons.

source: ELSTAT, own calculations

As you can see, in 2013, the number of employed persons has edged up marginally. By year-end it is possible this line could have gone flat or dipped (slightly) below 100. But this year’s picture is wholly different than those of the previous three.

One could think, how is it possible that unemployment and employment (albeit marginally) are increasing at the same time?

The answer is that the labour force has grown in 2013, something in itself relatively upbeat.

source: ELSTAT, own calculations

Do these charts portray a rosy picture of Greece’s economy? Not at all.

Do they send out the message that we may be nearing the bottom? In my humble opinion, they could be, but with some considerable downside risks attched. Now, I won't go into what those risks are but the brave souls that have been checking this blog in the past know, more or less, what I consider these to be.

Greece's growth through the decades: a lost decade and comparisons with Med peers

I was once again browsing through AMECO data and thought that taking a look at how Greece has fared over the years (growth-wise), from 1960 till today, would be interesting. The result is the following post where I have plotted all decades’ GDP growth together.

To get a better sense of the international setting of each decade I plotted Greece’s growth rates against other Med countries whose position in the development spectrum is closer to ours than other Euro Area nations.

The current post has the potential to be considered politicized and since this was not my intention when plotting the charts, I will go light on the words.

source: AMECO, own calculations

In the 60s Greece was the fastest grower out of the other southern European countries featured in the chart.

source: AMECO, own calculations

In the 70s too, Greece again grew, cumulatively, faster than the other 3 countries. Along with the 60’s, the 70s were the easy part of the catch-up growth phase for Greece and easy growth ran its course with’ em.

source: AMECO, own calculations

In the 80s Greece, was by far, the laggard among the four. This was Greece’s version of a lost decade. All other countries advanced at an almost even pace.

source: AMECO, own calculations

In the 90s Greece grew faster that the previous decade with Italy being the group's laggard.

source: AMECO, own calculations

 In the 00s, Greece was once more the growth leader of the group, with Italy and Portugal muddling through their own versions of a lost decade. Not going to expand on the reasons behind that particular growth-spurt in Greece, I’ve done so on numerous older posts.

source: AMECO, own calculations

I don’t need to say that the current decade is nightmare-ish for Greece and that we’re experiencing a full-blown depression since we’ve all been feeling this to out bones.

source: AMECO,own calculations

Well, that’s a wrap ladies and gents. This one was not a words-heavy post but I hope that you found the charts interesting. I currently am a bit rusty on the writing side since I don’t write much (or at all) lately so be patient with my posts. Cheers…

P.S. I called the 80s and not the current one, Greece’s lost decade, not because the jury is still out but because this one will be awfully worse.